As the Ukrainian crisis continues, U.S. military aid to Ukraine has become an international focus. However, the timing and policy direction of weapons delivery have not been smooth sailing. The Pentagon has repeatedly emphasized that the delivery of some weapons may not be completed until the end of President Biden's term, which is not only related to the aid process, but also reflects the complex policy operation logic and diplomatic considerations within the United States.

Analysis of the aid system: Comparison of two main mechanisms

Presidential Drawing Authority (PDA)

"Presidential Drawing Authority" is a rapid response mechanism that allows the United States to deliver weapons directly to Ukraine from existing military stocks. Since no new purchases are required, this mechanism greatly shortens the delivery time, allowing some weapons to arrive on the Ukrainian battlefield within days or weeks. This mechanism has been frequently used in the current crisis and accounts for an important part of military aid to Ukraine.

However, this approach also has its limitations. First, weapons in the U.S. inventory need to be refurbished regularly to ensure normal use. This process may slow down the delivery speed. Second, frequent use of inventory may also have an impact on the United States' own defense preparedness capabilities, which needs to be balanced through subsequent supplementary purchases.

Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI)

Unlike PDA, the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative aims to procure new weapon systems for Ukraine through cooperation with military-industrial enterprises. Although this method can provide more advanced equipment that is more suitable for Ukraine's needs, it often takes months or even years to complete delivery due to the long production and transportation cycle.

For example, some key air defense systems and heavy equipment may need to go through multiple links before they can finally reach the front line after the procurement contract is signed. In this regard, Pentagon officials pointed out that this approach focuses more on long-term aid planning rather than short-term battlefield needs.

Current aid scale and fund use

As of November 2024, the US government report shows that aid to Ukraine mainly comes from two sources:

Remaining funds from the President's withdrawal authority: approximately US$9 billion, of which US$7 billion can be used immediately.

Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative: approximately US$2.2 billion.

These funds are mainly used to provide key military equipment such as ammunition, anti-tank missiles, and air defense systems. For example, the $275 million aid package announced on November 20 covers rockets, artillery shells and anti-armor weapons, all of which are designed to meet the actual needs of the Ukrainian battlefield.

Reasons for delivery delays

Production and overhaul cycle

Some key equipment, such as the Patriot air defense system and the HIMARS rocket launcher, require complex production, debugging or overhaul work. For example, US Secretary of Defense Austin mentioned in October that some equipment drawn from the inventory needs to be fully overhauled before transportation, a process that may take weeks or even months.

Logistics and transportation challenges

The process of weapon delivery is also limited by transportation capacity. Transportation involves not only ground and air logistics, but also coordination of NATO and allied support. Although this multinational cooperation has increased the scale of aid, it has also extended the time.

Political uncertainty

With the 2024 US presidential election approaching, future government policies may directly affect the implementation of the aid plan to Ukraine. For example, if the Trump camp returns to power, it may adopt a more conservative foreign aid policy. This potential change adds uncertainty to the continued supply of weapons to Ukraine.

The strategic significance of US aid

Supporting Ukraine and strengthening NATO's defense

As a frontline country between the West and Russia, Ukraine's stability and security are directly related to the security of NATO allies. Therefore, the United States not only regards military aid as a means to help Ukraine, but also as a strategic investment to maintain the security of itself and its allies.

Promoting the development of the global military industry

Through cooperation with military enterprises, the United States is also injecting new impetus into the global arms market while improving its own military industrial capabilities. This win-win strategy has made the United States not only the main aid country in the Ukrainian crisis, but also consolidated its global military dominance.

Challenges and opportunities for the future

Strengthening multilateral cooperation

Although the United States has played a leading role in aiding Ukraine, it is difficult for the United States alone to continuously meet Ukraine's long-term defense needs. Therefore, it is particularly important to coordinate the resources of NATO and other allies. Through joint procurement and division of labor and cooperation, the overall efficiency of aid can be improved while reducing the burden on the United States.

Ensuring transparency and efficiency of aid

As the scale of aid expands, the United States is increasingly concerned about the efficiency of fund use. To ensure the continuity of the aid program, the Pentagon needs to further improve the transparency of funding allocation and implementation, and show the public that its commitment to Ukraine is not only a diplomatic action, but also a best practice in defense policy.

Dealing with potential political variables

The 2024 US presidential election will bring significant uncertainty to the policy of aid to Ukraine. If the new government adjusts its aid to Ukraine, it may weaken Ukraine's battlefield advantage. Therefore, at the current stage, the Biden administration needs to accelerate the implementation of existing plans to reduce the negative impact of future policy adjustments.

The US military aid to Ukraine is not only a manifestation of a diplomatic commitment, but also a practice to test the balance of global power. Although there are multiple challenges in the process of weapons delivery, by optimizing the aid mechanism, deepening multilateral cooperation, and improving financial transparency, the United States can demonstrate its leadership in maintaining the global order. In the future, no matter how the international situation changes, support for Ukraine will continue to shape the global security landscape.