US President-elect Donald Trump nominated Florida Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. This appointment not only reveals the diplomatic inclinations of the new government, but also highlights Rubio's tough stance and unique personal experience. From the son of Cuban immigrants to the US "China hawk", how Rubio's growth process, political ideas and foreign policy will affect US-China relations and the global situation has become the focus of international attention.

Rubio's growth background: the vision of the son of immigrants

Rubio's family background has a profound impact on his political views. His parents immigrated to the United States from Cuba in the 1950s to escape the Castro regime and settled in Miami, Florida. His parents worked in hotels and raised Rubio through hard work. As a Cuban immigrant from the working class, Rubio witnessed his parents' hard struggle for a better life. Because of this, he has a very clear stance on immigration, democracy and anti-authoritarianism, especially in dealing with Latin American countries such as Cuba and Venezuela.

From the son of Cuban immigrants to a key figure in the "China hawks"

Rubio's political career began in the Florida State Assembly and he entered the U.S. Senate in 2010. As an important member of the Republican conservatives, he has long been vigilant against external threats, especially a tough stance against China. Since taking office as a senator, Rubio has served on the Congressional-Executive China Commission and the Senate Intelligence Committee, frequently paying attention to China's economic and military development, and proposing a number of bills to restrict China. He has also met with senior Taiwanese officials many times to support Taiwan-U.S. relations, which has made him a focus of attention for his "pro-Taiwan" stance.

On the international stage, Rubio's tough diplomatic stance has led to his repeated sanctions by China. He is one of the initiators of bills such as the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act and the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, and has actively promoted attention to Xinjiang and Hong Kong issues to support ethnic minorities and democratic movements. In 2020, China sanctioned Rubio for his Xinjiang-related remarks and once again took retaliatory measures against him on the Hong Kong issue. The news that Rubio took office as Secretary of State "with sanctions" has aroused great attention from the outside world to Sino-U.S. relations. Some analysts believe that his appointment may further strain Sino-U.S. relations.

Rubio's Asia-Pacific policy perspective: highly alert to China's rise

Rubio has shown great vigilance in dealing with the issue of China's rise. In September 2024, he published a report entitled "The World Built by China", which analyzed China's "Made in China 2025" plan in detail, especially China's layout in the fields of semiconductors and artificial intelligence. He wrote in The Washington Post that although China is facing economic difficulties, it still has technological advantages and can occupy an important position in global competition. He stressed that the United States should maintain strategic vigilance against China to ensure that China and the United States remain sufficiently competitive in the next decade.

He also worried that the Russian-Ukrainian war distracted the United States from Asia-Pacific affairs. He believes that the stability of the Indo-Pacific region will be decisive for the future of the 21st century, and warned that China hopes to use the European conflict to make it difficult for the United States to focus on Indo-Pacific affairs. This "cross-regional" security concept will become an important guiding ideology of his foreign policy and further promote the United States' military and economic layout in the Asia-Pacific region.

New situation in US-China diplomacy: on the edge of cooperation and confrontation

For Rubio, who is about to serve as Secretary of State, Sino-US relations will be a key challenge. Against this backdrop, American scholars and political analysts have speculated whether Rubio will further increase his China policy. Given his consistent hawkish stance, the United States may further strengthen its support for the Taiwan Strait issue, which will make the situation across the Taiwan Strait more tense.

Associate Professor Zhuang Jiaying of the National University of Singapore said that Rubio's stance on sanctions against China is extremely firm, and if China is willing to ease relations with the new government, it may consider lifting the ban on it. However, if both sides still regard each other as "competitors", the possibility of such easing will be minimal. In the coming years, as Rubio may continue to strengthen his precautions against China, the relationship between the two sides may continue to be tense to a certain extent.

Rubio's Latin American policy: a tough attitude towards Cuba and Latin American authoritarian regimes

As a descendant of Cuban immigrants, Rubio has a particularly tough attitude towards the Cuban regime. As early as the Obama administration, when Washington tried to ease its sanctions policy against Cuba, Rubio publicly opposed it and supported the Trump administration's tightening of the economic blockade against Cuba. His family history and the background of Cuban authoritarian rule make him extremely firm in his foreign policy involving Cuba.

Rubio may adopt a tougher foreign policy towards Cuba and its socialist allies, such as Venezuela and Nicaragua. The local people in Cuba are generally worried that if Rubio serves as Secretary of State, the United States may further strengthen its sanctions policy against Cuba and may even close the U.S. Embassy in Cuba. This will not only have an impact on Cuba's economy, but also increase geopolitical tensions in the region.

Rubio's conservative values and the extension of foreign policy

As a representative of conservatives, Rubio's values are reflected in both domestic and foreign policies of the United States. In addition to foreign affairs, Rubio also supports conservative positions at home. He firmly opposes abortion, advocates a "protect life" policy, and opposes the legalization of same-sex marriage, proposing to define marriage as a union between a man and a woman through constitutional amendment. These conservative positions have won him support among American conservatives.

At the same time, Rubio's religious beliefs also have a potential impact on his foreign policy. He firmly supports Israel's military actions, especially in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and believes that Israel should destroy Hamas and maintain national security. His conservative values have enabled him to take a tough stance on Middle East policy, firmly supporting the United States' traditional allies and confronting the threat of terrorism.

Risk of escalating Sino-US confrontation

Rubio's inauguration may mark a new round of tension in Sino-US relations. Compared with former Secretary of State Pompeo, Rubio is more radical on China issues. He may take more direct measures on issues such as Taiwan, Xinjiang and Hong Kong, which will lead to intensified confrontation between China and the United States on multiple issues. At the same time, his vigilance against China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region and his emphasis on Indo-Pacific security issues may push the United States to further deploy in the Asia-Pacific region.

If Rubio continues to maintain a hawkish stance on foreign policy, the diplomatic relations between the United States and China may continue to hover on the edge of competition and confrontation in the coming years. In the context of globalization, how to strike a balance between confrontation and cooperation will be a major challenge for Rubio after he takes office. In any case, Rubio's policies will have a profound impact on future US-China relations and will also become the focus of international attention.