As former President Trump plans to return to the White House, his former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin recently analyzed the policy direction of Trump's second term in an interview. He pointed out that if Trump takes office again, he may restart tariff measures on China, implement targeted tax cuts, and strengthen economic sanctions on Iran and Russia to consolidate the United States' global position and promote domestic economic development.

Trade policy: Re-increasing tariffs on China

Mnuchin said that Trump may review his trade policy toward China in his second term and consider using tariffs to force China back to the negotiating table. He specifically mentioned that after the US-China trade war launched by Trump in 2018-2019, the two sides reached a first phase trade agreement in 2020. Under the agreement, China promised to purchase an additional $200 billion in US goods and services between 2020 and 2021, but due to the epidemic, China failed to fully implement the agreement. Mnuchin pointed out that if Trump takes office again, he may use tariff pressure to force China to take the terms of the agreement more seriously to promote US manufacturing and export growth.

In addition, Mnuchin stressed that the implementation of the tariff policy will be "strategic" to avoid excessive impact on prices for American consumers. He pointed out that although tariffs may increase the cost of some goods, exemptions can be provided to certain American companies to reduce pressure on production and inflation, thereby controlling price increases. This tariff strategy is intended to reduce the adverse impact on the US economy while promoting fairness in the international trade environment.

Tax reduction policy: support manufacturing and job growth

Tax reduction is also an important part of Trump's economic policy. Mnuchin pointed out that Trump had reduced the corporate tax rate to 21% in his first term and publicly expressed his intention to further reduce it to 15%. Mnuchin believes that if Trump wants to continue to reduce tax rates, he should focus on manufacturing and employment to enhance the competitiveness and employment opportunities of the US manufacturing industry, rather than comprehensively reducing corporate taxes. This strategy will not only help promote the recovery of domestic manufacturing, but also improve the competitiveness of the United States in the global market.

He emphasized that tax cuts are not just to reduce the burden on enterprises, but more importantly, through the adjustment of tax policies, it is to encourage enterprises to concentrate their production bases and investments more in the United States, and drive more high-quality jobs. Mnuchin believes that such targeted tax cuts can effectively enhance the stability of the country's industrial chain and lay a solid foundation for the long-term growth of the US economy.

External sanctions: Strengthening economic attacks on Iran and Russia

Mnuchin also talked about the possibility that Trump might strengthen economic sanctions against Iran and Russia to deal with the threat posed by these two countries to the international order. Iran's oil exports are still continuing, and Mnuchin believes that it is necessary to limit its oil revenues through sanctions to combat Iran's nuclear program and regional influence. Iran has accumulated a lot of money through oil trade in recent years, and these revenues may be used to support military activities. Therefore, Mnuchin suggested that the Trump administration restrict Iran's oil exports through international cooperation to weaken its influence in the Middle East.

At the same time, Mnuchin pointed out that Russia's diplomatic activities in recent years, especially its influence in Ukraine and other regions, have aroused widespread concern, and he believes that Trump may continue to promote sanctions against Russia. He suggested that more targeted economic measures should be taken when imposing sanctions to curb Russia's military and economic expansion. Mnuchin's views show that Trump may take a tougher stance in foreign policy and try to achieve the United States' strategic goals in international affairs through economic means.

Energy and Price Control: Lowering Consumer Cost of Living

In terms of controlling inflation and stabilizing prices, Mnuchin pointed out that energy prices are a key factor affecting consumers' cost of living. He suggested ensuring that energy prices remain stable by strengthening domestic energy production, especially the supply of oil and natural gas. This strategy can not only curb inflationary pressures, but also reduce the United States' dependence on foreign energy. Mnuchin believes that reducing energy costs is not only vital to consumers' lives, but will also have a positive impact on the overall economy.

Mnuchin's Policy Blueprint and Trump's Economic Outlook

Mnuchin's analysis provides a clear blueprint for Trump's future policies. Whether it is the re-tariff, the tax cut policy focused on manufacturing, or the sanctions against Iran and Russia, they all reflect a systematic economic strategy aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of the United States in the global market and ensuring the stability and growth of the domestic economy. Mnuchin's suggestions reveal the tough but strategic means that Trump may use to deal with domestic and foreign challenges and promote the full recovery and long-term development of the US economy through the "America First" policy.

If Trump's policies can be implemented as Mnuchin describes, it may bring new economic opportunities to the United States. However, it remains to be seen whether tariffs, tax cuts and sanctions will bring about the desired effects in practice.