With Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election, he is about to enter the White House again. This move not only caused a shock in the domestic political arena of the United States, but also brought great uncertainty to the global geopolitical landscape. Especially in the US-China relationship, Trump's re-election indicates that the tension between the two sides may further escalate. Analysts pointed out that Trump's policy may restart or even escalate the policy of economic decoupling and confrontation with China, which poses a potential challenge to the Chinese economy and its strategic environment.

Re-starting a high-pressure policy against China? US-China economic and trade relations may face severe tests

The trade war launched by Trump against China in his last term has already brought a shock to the Chinese economy. In 2018, the United States imposed tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese goods. During this campaign, Trump promised that if he was re-elected, he would impose higher tariffs on all Chinese imports, and the tax rate could even reach 60%. According to estimates by the nonpartisan organization "Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget", such tariff adjustments may lead to an 85% reduction in China's exports to the United States, almost destroying the existing Sino-US trade relations.

The economies of China and the United States have been highly interdependent over the past few decades, and if Trump continues to promote "decoupling", it will mean that the economic ties that support the bilateral relationship will be weakened, which may further suppress China's economic growth. According to the latest research by UBS Group, if the United States imposes a 60% tariff on China, China's economic growth rate will be significantly lower. This year, China's economic growth rate may slow further to around 4.5%, and this new tariff measure may make it worse.

Against this backdrop, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China is discussing a large-scale economic stimulus plan to try to strengthen domestic demand to offset the negative impact of the unfavorable international economic situation. According to Reuters, facing Trump's re-election, China may further increase this stimulus plan to cope with the expected external shocks.

Strengthening financial sanctions and "SWIFT" system risks

In addition to the tariff policy, Trump's re-election has also raised concerns about the financial relationship between China and the United States. During his first term, Trump announced sanctions on individuals and related financial institutions involved in undermining Hong Kong's autonomy, sparking speculation about whether China would be excluded from the SWIFT global settlement system. Although this possibility has not yet become a reality, if the Trump administration strengthens financial sanctions, China may face the dilemma of restricted cross-border capital flows, affecting payment settlements in global trade.

Chen Zongyi, professor of political economy at York University, pointed out that many members of the Trump team have a tough stance on China, and the risk of escalating sanctions cannot be ignored. China may need to accelerate the use of the RMB in international settlements and further reduce its dependence on SWIFT to cope with the potential risk of financial blockades in the future.

The game between China, the United States and Russia intensifies: Trump shifts his focus to the Indo-Pacific strategy

During the campaign, Trump also mentioned several times that he would divide the Sino-Russian alliance. In recent years, due to the Ukrainian war, the United States has increased its attention to European security, and Trump has stated that if elected, he will seek to end the Ukrainian war and concentrate resources in the Indo-Pacific region to curb China's influence. David Schultz, a professor of political science at Hamline University, believes that if the United States no longer invests a lot of resources in Europe, the geopolitical game between China and the United States will become more intense, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.

During Trump's previous term, U.S.-Taiwan relations were significantly strengthened, including arms sales to Taiwan and high-level exchanges between officials. According to the Congressional Research Service, Trump's arms sales to Taiwan in four years reached $18 billion, exceeding the total of Obama's two terms. If Trump continues to promote military support for Taiwan, it will not only further tighten US-Taiwan relations, but also increase China's vigilance against the situation in Taiwan.

Atlantic Council senior researcher Lan Ruosi pointed out that compared with Harris, Trump is more inclined to increase military budgets and arms sales to the Asia-Pacific region, which may change the balance of military power in the Indo-Pacific region. She believes that Trump's policies will increase the US military investment in the Asia-Pacific region and further strengthen its deterrence in the region.

The next four years: Where is the US-China relationship heading?

This time, Trump is ahead of Harris in both electoral votes and popular votes, and the Republican Party won a majority in the Senate, which may further consolidate Trump's ruling foundation. In contrast, Harris's campaign agenda focuses more on domestic affairs. If she is elected, the US government's priority direction may be more inclined to internal economic and social issues. Trump's re-election has further deepened the tension between China and the United States, and his policies will be more inclined to increase strategic and economic pressure on China.

Trump's victory has a profound impact on the future foreign policy of the United States. Compared with the policy of moderate engagement, Trump's return to the White House means a clearer confrontational route with China, especially in trade, finance and Indo-Pacific strategy. Faced with such a situation, China may also take more defensive and strategic adjustments in its foreign policy to cope with pressure from the United States.

Brandley Womack, professor of international relations at the University of Virginia, believes that if Trump does not encounter serious obstacles during the transition period, he will have more political space to focus on China policy. The future stability of Sino-US relations will be affected by Trump's foreign policy priorities, and his team's attitude and execution in dealing with Sino-US relations will also affect the future interaction pattern between the two countries.

In the next four years, Sino-US relations may enter a more confrontational cycle, and may even form a new Cold War pattern. And with Trump's return, global politics will also usher in new changes.