On a viewing platform in northeastern China, Chinese tourists raise binoculars and look across the river at North Korea, feeling a sense of pride. However, the border where three national flags meet here also symbolizes the complex situation China faces. In recent years, the rapid warming of relations between North Korea and Russia has forced China to carefully handle this dangerous diplomatic vortex to avoid increasing geopolitical isolation and risks.

Border Triangle: Beijing's Ally or Burden?

The relationship between China and North Korea was once described by Mao Zedong as "lips and teeth interdependent", but in recent years, North Korea has increasingly tended to act under the protection of Russia. Putin's repeated meetings with Kim Jong-un show the deepening of the North Korea-Russia alliance. Although China is still North Korea's largest economic supporter, providing more than 90% of its foreign trade, including food and fuel supplies, China's influence on North Korea seems to have gradually weakened under the closer interaction between North Korea and Russia. North Korea's "tacit dependence" on Chinese aid has been replaced by increasing independent actions, making Beijing's strategy more subtle.

"Comrades from Hell": North Korea's independent stance

For North Korea, Russia provides another option to counter sanctions. According to intelligence, North Korea may provide military ammunition to Russia, which was used in the Ukrainian battlefield. Although both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the allegations, Western countries have repeatedly expressed their concerns. The further cooperation between North Korea and Russia has weakened Beijing's influence on North Korea to a certain extent, and it has also put Beijing in an awkward choice between the two countries.

Analysts believe that Xi Jinping is trying to maintain a "stable and controllable" relationship with North Korea, but China's position has become more delicate as Putin and Kim Jong-un gradually get closer. Beijing needs a stable North Korea, but the close relationship between North Korea and Russia has also reduced Beijing's control over North Korea.

Beijing's caution: the hidden worries of the Russian-North Korean alliance

In the border town of Fangchuan, vigilance and observation are everywhere. There are strict controls on the behavior of journalists and tourists, which reflects Beijing's sensitivity to changes in Russian-North Korean relations. Although the Chinese government has remained silent to the outside world, the United States seems to have noticed Beijing's concerns. American diplomats have raised the possibility of North Korean troops stationed in Russia to China, urging Beijing to take a clearer stance on North Korea.

However, for regional security considerations, China has always opposed North Korea's nuclear expansion. Although China and Russia share similar positions on many issues, they are always wary of North Korea's arms expansion. If Russia provides North Korea with advanced technology such as satellites, it will make North Korea more confident in military terms and pose a threat to the regional situation.

An alliance out of control? The risks of North Korea's independent actions

Putin's close interaction with Kim Jong-un has undoubtedly strengthened North Korea's confidence. In sharp contrast to Kim Jong-un's "close comradeship" relationship, he maintains a relatively cold distance from Xi Jinping. Analysts point out that this change in relationship may weaken China's influence on North Korean affairs. North Korea has conducted multiple weapons tests in the past year and has continuously sent tough signals to South Korea, further straining Sino-South Korean relations. South Korea has begun to discuss the establishment of its own nuclear deterrent and seek closer cooperation with NATO and Ukraine, which is undoubtedly a new security challenge for Beijing.

Against this backdrop, the United States and its allies have strengthened their support for Japan and South Korea to balance China's influence in Northeast Asia. Beijing has always advocated the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but North Korea's continued advancement of nuclear weapons development and military threats to the South are gradually weakening Beijing's voice in the affairs of the peninsula.

China's dilemma: consolidate allies or avoid risks?

Although Beijing is reluctant to see North Korea take radical measures alone, given North Korea's dependence on Chinese trade, any move to cut off or reduce aid may trigger a refugee crisis and border instability. North Korea's geographical importance limits Beijing's choices. To maintain North Korea's stability, China will not rashly take sanctions, because once North Korea falls into economic difficulties, there may be a refugee wave on the Chinese border, further complicating the situation.

However, North Korea is also taking advantage of this and regards China's support as a guarantee for its continued independence. This attitude exacerbates China's dilemma on the North Korean issue. Beijing hopes to avoid provoking North Korea's extreme actions, but it also does not want to see North Korea completely turn to Russia and become a vassal of Russia, further challenging regional stability.

China's choice in the geopolitical game

Against the backdrop of Putin and Kim Jong-un gradually getting closer, China's influence in Northeast Asia faces new tests. North Korea's dependence on Russia and China's declining influence have made North Korea an increasingly unpredictable variable. If China is unwilling to compromise on the North Korean issue, Beijing may be forced to invest more energy in balancing the relationship between Russia and North Korea. This choice not only affects China's geopolitical position in Northeast Asia, but also affects the diplomatic game between China and the United States.

How Beijing balances the relationship between Russia and North Korea will determine its long-term influence in the situation in Northeast Asia. China's strategic choice not only involves regional security, but also reflects its changing role in the changing global landscape.