With the arrival of winter, the price of down jackets in the Chinese market has risen significantly, attracting widespread attention from consumers. According to industry insiders, this wave of price increases is not just as simple as the increase in raw material costs. In fact, from changes in the breeding industry to consumer behavior, this phenomenon involves the superposition of multiple factors.

Rising raw material prices: Down prices continue to rise

The rise in down prices this year is one of the main reasons for the rise in down jacket prices. According to Red Star News, the down market has seen price fluctuations at the beginning of the year, and some industry practitioners described it as "basically a new price every day." Manager Ling of Guangdong Hongji Down Products Co., Ltd. said that the price of 90% down-containing white duck down has risen from 43-45 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 56 yuan/kg in November, an increase of nearly 40%. In addition, according to data from the Down Gold Network, the price of white goose down has also risen from 1069.66 yuan/kg in May this year to 1143.92 yuan/kg in November.

The person in charge of Shaoxing Jinnuo Clothing Co., Ltd. said that the increase in the cost of raw materials for down jackets has increased the cost of each finished product by 15%-30%. In the terminal market, consumers feel that the price of each down jacket has increased by 200 to 500 yuan.

Reduced duck and goose farming: pork consumption affects the poultry market

The farming volume of ducks and geese, the source of down, has declined in recent years, and the reason behind this is closely related to the change in pork prices. The report of China Business News pointed out that the decline in pork prices has driven changes in meat market consumption. Since 2021, pork prices have remained low, attracting more consumers to choose pork, resulting in a decrease in market demand for ducks and geese, which has affected the scale of farming. Data show that since 2019, the output of meat ducks and geese in China has declined year by year. As of 2023, the output of meat ducks has dropped to 4.218 billion, while the output of geese has dropped to 515 million.

Industry insiders analyzed that due to the decline in duck and goose farming, the supply of down in the market has also decreased. Changes in supply and demand have caused down prices to continue to rise, and with the shortage of down supply, down jacket manufacturers are gradually transferring cost pressure to terminal products.

From "Pig Cycle" to "Down Cycle": Multiple Market Factors Superimposed

Behind the rise in down prices, there is also a complex market relationship hidden - the so-called "pig cycle" has a chain effect on other meats. As pork prices fall, consumers' preferences shift to pork, further compressing the market for poultry such as ducks and geese. The reduction in poultry farming directly leads to limited supply of down raw materials, which has become one of the key factors in the rise in down prices.

This multi-level market linkage has led to a rapid rise in down raw materials in the short term, which has affected the production cost of down jackets. When the supply of down in the market is limited, the price of down jackets is naturally pushed up. Although some consumers believe that the price increase is too high, from the perspective of the industrial chain, these factors work together to form the inevitable result of the price increase of down jackets.

Consumers' doubts and market responses

The rise in down jacket prices has also caused dissatisfaction and doubts among consumers. Some consumers said that the price increase of one pound of white duck down cannot fully explain the reason why a down jacket has risen by 200 yuan, and they believe that merchants are suspected of raising prices. Some consumers pointed out that merchants may take advantage of the rising demand in winter to "hype" and expect that the price of down jackets may fall in the future when consumption slows down.

In response to this phenomenon, some down jacket brands are also adjusting their strategies to cope with the contradiction between rising costs and consumer feedback. Industry insiders pointed out that some brands may balance price increases through large-scale promotional activities such as Double Eleven to maintain market competitiveness.

Looking to the future: Raw materials and market supply and demand will affect price trends

In the future, the price trend of down jackets will still be affected by multiple factors. First, the continued rise in the price of down raw materials will directly affect the cost of down jackets, especially in the winter when demand is high, and this rise may continue. Secondly, if pork prices rebound in the future, it may further affect the duck and goose breeding market, thereby easing the pressure on down supply and stabilizing prices.

However, from the current situation, the down jacket market may not be able to quickly return to last year's price level in the short term under the background of tight raw material supply. Today, when consumers are increasingly paying attention to cost-effectiveness, the down jacket industry will need to find a balance between price and quality to cope with complex market demands and changes.

In short, this year's down jacket price increase is not accidental. It involves multiple factors such as rising raw material prices, changes in breeding structure, and market supply and demand. This "down cycle" indirectly triggered by the "pig cycle" reminds people that the price of consumer goods is not only a reflection of market demand, but more of a result of the mutual influence of the entire industrial chain in a rapidly changing market.