Even though the results of the 2024 election have not yet been announced, the twists and turns encountered by the Democratic Party in this campaign have been unexpected. Trump seemed to be in trouble after the midterm elections, especially facing the negative impact of the January 6 riots, several criminal prosecutions, and the controversy over overturning Roe v. Wade, but Trump did not "disqualify" as expected. In contrast, voters in 2024 seem to be more inclined to question the performance of the current president rather than the crimes of the former president. This unexpected situation makes it more difficult for the Democratic Party to defeat Trump.

Trump's continued competitiveness stems from the complexity of the overall political environment in the United States. The last joint survey by The New York Times and Siena College showed that only 40% of voters approved of Biden's performance in office, and only 28% believed that the United States was moving in the right direction. With so many voters dissatisfied, it is an extremely difficult challenge to maintain control of the White House. Polls show that the Republican Party is not only on par with the Democratic Party in terms of party identification, but also has an advantage on most key issues, except for a few exceptions on abortion rights and democratic issues, where the Democratic Party is almost completely at a disadvantage.

The deeper reason lies in the general situation of ruling parties in developed countries around the world. From the UK to Germany, from Italy to Australia, and even Japan, the ruling parties of these countries have suffered setbacks in elections or lost power in recent years. Whether it is the differences between national parties or the special national conditions, almost no one can escape the impact of the economic shock and social unrest caused by the new crown epidemic. High prices in various places and economic fluctuations after the epidemic have brought unprecedented anger and dissatisfaction, and voters have pushed the responsibility to the ruling party. The public's trust in the government and the media has gradually disappeared, or even completely lost. When the cost of living rises and the savings and purchasing power of low-income groups are constantly eroded, it is difficult for the ruling party to gain support.

In the United States, the disappointment in the post-epidemic period has brought great negative impacts to the Democratic Party. The strict epidemic prevention and control policies adopted by the Democratic Party, such as mask orders, vaccine mandatory, school closures and other measures, coupled with support for the "Black Lives Matter" movement, the promotion of relaxed immigration policies, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and even trillions of dollars in economic stimulus policies, have become a burden after the epidemic. Although these policies were intended to deal with the crisis brought about by the epidemic, they eventually became the focus of doubts, especially after the epidemic subsided, when people's patience with government intervention policies gradually disappeared.

Despite this, the Democratic Party still has its own "chip" - the existence of Trump himself. No matter how many accusations he faces due to various scandals, he is always an important trump card against him. In the 2022 midterm elections, the Democratic Party won a certain victory by relying on anti-Trump sentiment and support for abortion rights. However, even if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins in 2024, it does not necessarily mean a complete victory for progressives. Compared with 16 years ago, the Democratic Party is more conservative on immigration, crime and energy policies, and the original social security expansion issue has gradually been overshadowed by economic realities.

Since 2008, the political stage in the United States has been dominated by the Democratic Party and liberalism, and policy issues cover many fields such as medical reform, climate, immigration and trade unions. The "Occupy Wall Street", "Black Lives Matter" movement, "#MeToo" movement and even the "Green New Deal" promoted by left-wing figures such as Obama and Bernie Sanders have once allowed liberalism to dominate politics and culture. Even though Trump's election was once considered a blow to liberalism, it has intensified the radicalization of liberal groups. However, as economic uncertainty increases after the epidemic, the "energy" of liberalism seems to be gradually exhausted. Opposition to epidemic restrictions and doubts about the "awakening" left began to expand in society, people's trust in mainstream media, experts and scientists gradually declined, and young people increasingly relied on social media to express their dissatisfaction with the status quo.

In this situation, the Democratic Party's policy propositions are facing unprecedented challenges. People are increasingly dissatisfied with many measures taken by the Democratic Party in power, such as high government spending, which is blamed for inflation, and high oil prices are attributed to the government's suspension of drilling permits and the suspension of the Keystone oil pipeline project. Loose border policies, an influx of immigrants, and rising crime rates have made "law and order" a new focus. Under these pressures, the Democratic Party has to gradually move closer to right-wing policies. Harris's radical advocacy in 2019 to her current position of downplaying environmental policies and universal health care reflects the evolution of the Democratic Party from progressive to conservative.

Poll data also proves this change. Polls in 2024 show that the public is more inclined to support the Republican Party on various core issues, which is even more vividly reflected in party identification. The Democratic Party's advantage in party identification has long been gradually surpassed by the Republican Party. In several swing states, such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina, the proportion of registered Republicans is higher than that of Democrats. Such a significant change makes the resistance faced by the Democratic Party in this election more obvious.

In this political context, even if the Democratic Party maintains its winning streak, historians may believe that the dominant position of liberalism in the United States today has shown signs of decline. If Trump wins, this explanation may be more intuitive: after experiencing the epidemic and the subsequent social unrest, voters are increasingly disappointed with the Democratic Party and are unwilling to give the party another chance. On the contrary, if he loses, his performance in the riots on January 6 and the controversy over abortion rights will become key factors in the election results.

Regardless of the outcome, the 2024 election will be an important turning point in the American political landscape. The Democratic Party still has to find a balance between conservatism and progress, and liberalism may also find a new direction in the future wind direction.