Recently, the news that North Korea sent troops to Russia to participate in the Ukrainian war has attracted widespread attention from the international community, and this dynamic is particularly important to Beijing. Many experts believe that the degree of cooperation between North Korea and Russia has surprised China and may even affect Sino-Russian relations to a certain extent.

In an analysis of this incident, Zhao Tong, research director of the Nuclear Policy Project at the Center for Contemporary China Studies of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that although it is unclear whether North Korea informed China in advance about the plan to send troops, it is clear from the situation that Chinese diplomats asked their foreign counterparts that North Korea did not seek Beijing's opinion. This shows that the cooperation between North Korea and Russia appears to be quite secretive and surprised Beijing, especially considering the scale of troops sent by North Korea to Ukraine.

However, it is worth noting that both Russia and North Korea rely heavily on China's support. Zhao Tong pointed out that as Russia was economically isolated due to the war of aggression against Ukraine, its dependence on China continued to deepen, especially in the defense industry. This is crucial for Russia to continue the war. On the other hand, North Korea has historically relied heavily on China, but recently found that Moscow has been more active in economic ties, while Beijing has shown a certain degree of restraint.

North Korea's economic dependence on China is closely related to Russia's past reservations about assisting North Korea. Russia has long paid less attention to North Korea and was content to be under China's influence. However, the Ukrainian war changed this situation. In return for North Korea's military aid, Russia gradually increased its economic support for Pyongyang, especially in terms of urgently needed materials such as food and fuel, where Russia has demonstrated strong production capabilities. This shift has undoubtedly weakened China's control over North Korea.

In addition, Zhao Tong also pointed out that North Korea is unwilling to respond to China's security demands. Although Beijing does not approve of North Korea's accelerated nuclear program and ballistic missile development, North Korea's missile technology may make greater progress with Russia's help. This situation has exacerbated the concerns of South Korea and Japan, prompting the two countries to strengthen military cooperation with the United States. China is worried that North Korea's provocations may become an excuse for the United States to strengthen its strategic presence in the region, thereby strengthening the triangular relationship between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.

At the same time, China is also worried that other US allies, such as Australia, may enhance their military capabilities. As North Korea's military assistance to Russia intensifies, North Korea's threats have attracted great attention from the United States and NATO. In China's view, this deepening of North Korea-Russia relations may provide an excuse for the establishment of a situation similar to "Asian NATO" in its neighborhood, so Beijing is very concerned about the consequences of this cooperation.

Despite many concerns, China still chooses to support Russia from an economic and diplomatic perspective. Experts believe that this is mainly because both China and Russia regard the United States and its allies as common enemies, which is the basis of their strategic cooperation. China believes that there may be a major confrontation with the United States and its allies in the future, especially on the Taiwan issue. Therefore, in this case, it is particularly important to rely on Moscow to provide key economic and political support, and the extent of this support will depend on China's assistance to Russia in the Ukrainian war.

However, Zhao Tong emphasized that there are significant differences between China and Russia. Russia has largely abandoned its relations with the West, while China must maintain stable and relatively good relations with the West to safeguard its own interests. Chinese leaders are well aware that the country's long-term development depends on Western technology, investment, markets and resources.

In summary, China hopes to maintain peace with the West in the short and medium term, while gradually strengthening its own strength until it can make Western countries accept China's fundamental interests and governance system. For this reason, Beijing has set a bottom line for its support for Moscow and made it clear that it will not provide lethal military assistance. But within this framework, China still strives to cooperate with Russia, showing that how the interaction between the two sides will evolve in a complex international situation is still worthy of continued attention.