Intensified divisions: Election results raise questions about the political future

In the just-concluded Georgian election, the ruling party, the Georgian Dream Party, won the vote with an absolute majority, but the election results have caused huge social divisions. The Georgian opposition accused the election of fraud and called on supporters to protest in the capital Tbilisi. This election is a critical moment for Georgia's future direction. Why has this once firmly pro-European country now begun to lean towards pro-Russian parties? President Salome Zurabishvili, who has always advocated pro-Europe, also strongly opposed the election results.

At a late-night press conference held after the election, Zurabishvili bluntly pointed out, "I don't recognize these elections." She emphasized that if the legitimacy of this election is recognized, it would be tantamount to accepting Russian interference, which poses a serious threat to national sovereignty. Although she was elected with the support of the Dream Party, she has been warning that the party is leading Georgia towards isolation. Zurabishvili called herself "the only independent voice left in the country" and said that the current election results are a threat to national independence.

Changes in the political system and disputes in the election

The new electoral system adopted in this election makes all 150 seats allocated through proportional representation and does not allow the formation of political alliances, which undoubtedly brings advantages to the ruling Georgian Dream Party. However, the opposition hopes to obtain a majority of seats in the parliament in the form of a coalition, but there are serious internal divisions and it is difficult to form a united front. This division directly weakens the influence of the opposition and makes it difficult for voters to make a unanimous choice against pro-Russian parties. Former diplomat George Badridze believes that the failure of the opposition to unite under one banner has disappointed voters who want to join Europe, which is also the reason why the opposition lost some key votes.

Allegations of electoral fraud and international attention

The opposition and election observation organizations believe that there is fraud in this election. The independent monitoring group "My Voice" recorded more than 200 violations across the country, including ballot box fraud, violence against observers, and expulsion of journalists. The election monitoring report pointed out that the unfair campaign environment and tense social atmosphere undermined the fairness of this election. In addition, Georgia introduced an electronic counting system. Although the automated process can reduce the possibility of obvious manipulation, critics point out that it also makes the manipulation more covert.

George Oniani, deputy director of Transparency International, said that the economic vulnerability of some poor voters was exploited. For example, voters may be asked to "rent" their ID cards to specific political parties and receive money in return to limit their actual voting rights. In addition, the Georgian Dream Party used economic leverage to influence the voting intentions of some voters, causing independent monitoring organizations to doubt the fairness of the election results.

Why did the pro-Russian "Georgian Dream Party" gain so much support?

Despite its close ties with Russia, the Georgian Dream Party can still gain a lot of support in a country where most people want to join the European Union. Analysts believe that this is inseparable from its emphasis on conservative values. According to the "World Values Survey", Georgia has a low tolerance for socially progressive issues. The Georgian Dream Party won the support of a large number of conservative voters during the campaign by promising to resist LGBT propaganda and protect traditional family concepts. In addition, the Dream Party used images of the Ukrainian war in its campaign to warn voters that choosing the wrong direction could lead to similar war consequences. This strategy touched voters' desire for peace.

People's fear of war: an effective means of political manipulation

"If it's not us, there will be war", this is the message repeatedly conveyed by the Dream Party. Voters are constantly told that if the opposition party is elected, it will push the country into war. Faced with this "life-and-death" rhetoric, many people choose to believe and rely on the Georgian Dream Party to defend national peace. Senior political scientist Gia Nodia pointed out that the Dream Party used this "fear of war" to not only stimulate people's security anxiety, but also weaken the influence of the opposition. Critics believe that the Dream Party uses vague words to express the so-called "external threat", and the vague words make it difficult for the opposition to refute, and successfully consolidate its support base.

Dream Party and the EU: A delicate position

Although the Georgian Dream Party emphasizes its moderate attitude towards Russia in its propaganda, it also positions itself as a party that leads the country into Europe. Maka Bochorishvili, a member of the Dream Party, said the party is committed to making Georgia ready to join the European Union by 2030. This seemingly contradictory position has raised doubts about the Dream Party's pro-European stance. The ruling party in Georgia has repeatedly proposed the goal of establishing closer relations with the European Union, but at the same time has promulgated regulations such as the "Foreign Agents Law", which has challenged Georgia's relations with Western countries. These actions have triggered widespread opposition at home and abroad, and have also caused the United States to reassess its foreign policy toward Georgia.

The dilemma of the opposition: the prospects of protests are unclear

After the exit polls were released, the opposition once thought it had a sure win, but with the official election results released, disappointment and anger followed. Political scientist Gia Nodia pointed out that the opposition lacks an influential leader, making it difficult to effectively organize protests. Although protests may occur, they are not expected to be large enough to bring about any major political turning point.

Former diplomat George Badridze believes that the opposition is a far cry from the situation during the "Rose Revolution" in 2003, when the opposition had a highly respected leader, social morale was high, and the opposition could quickly organize effective protests. However, the current opposition seems to be unable to do its best in terms of self-organization and leadership, which is undoubtedly beneficial to the Georgian Dream Party.

Uncertain road ahead: Georgia's future direction

This election not only reflects the divisions within Georgian society, but also reveals the dilemma of the country's direction. The Georgian Dream Party won the election and consolidated its domestic influence, but the party's pro-Russian stance, internal control and suppression of the opposition have raised concerns about its intentions to govern the country. Social divisions and political deadlocks may make Georgia more isolated in future international relations.

In this game between pro-Europe and pro-Russian, Georgia's future direction remains unclear. The controversy over the election results has triggered a deep reflection on the future of democracy in all walks of life. Whether Georgia can maintain its independence and balance domestic and foreign forces will become a key issue for its future development.