As the 2024 US presidential election enters its final stage, with only about a week left until voting day, the two major candidates - Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Kamala Harris - are holding intensive campaign rallies across the country. Although the two have engaged in heated debates on issues such as domestic policies, immigration, abortion, climate change, Ukraine and Israel, China has been relatively limited in discussion during the campaign. Despite the continued tensions between the United States and China, why has China not become a major focus in the election? Will the new president's China policy be adjusted?

Limited presence of China issues in the election

On October 27, Trump briefly mentioned China during a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. He said that if the United States and China come into conflict, the United States will win, and once again promoted the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act. In contrast, Harris did not mention China at all at the rally in Philadelphia.

Although China is widely regarded as an important adversary of the United States and even a threat to national security, the candidates have not made it a core issue in their campaigns. At the Republican National Convention in July, Trump criticized China's threat to the US auto industry and mentioned the Taiwan issue, but discussions about China were still sporadic afterwards. Harris mentioned China only once at the Democratic National Convention in August, emphasizing that the United States must lead China in areas such as artificial intelligence to win the competition in the 21st century.

In the presidential debate on September 10, Trump again proposed high tariffs on China, while Harris criticized China's transparency in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. But overall, neither candidate discussed the issue of US-China relations in depth.

Why did US-China relations not become the focus of the election?

Although the China issue is crucial to US foreign policy, this issue has not been widely discussed in this election. Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, wrote that although the US defense strategy and national security strategy regard China as a major threat, the public and candidates have relatively limited interest in this issue. He questioned whether American voters have been overwhelmed by domestic social media and the 24-hour news cycle, and have lost their focus on substantive policy issues.

According to a YouGov poll released on October 25, the issues that voters are most concerned about are still domestic issues such as the economy, health care, immigration and crime, while foreign policy ranks low in importance, especially China. Although the competition between the United States and China is intensifying, compared with the Russo-Ukrainian War and the Middle East conflict, the relationship between the United States and China has not yet entered the stage of direct military confrontation, so it is not as attractive to voters as other diplomatic issues.

There is no substantial difference between the two parties on China policy

Another reason why the China issue has not become the focus of the election is that the two parties have little difference in their policies toward China. As Liu Yawei, director of the China Project at the Carter Center in the United States, pointed out, the two parties are converging on their attitudes toward China. Although there are occasional accusations against each other in the election debate, both sides advocate a tough stance on China. The China policy initiated by the Trump administration has been continued under the Biden administration and has become more severe and precise in some aspects.

Liu Yawei believes that no matter who the new president is, the general direction of China policy will not change fundamentally. The competition between the United States and China will continue, and the fine-tuning of policies will depend on changes in the international situation, especially the evolution of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the situation in the Middle East.

The historical evolution of the China issue: from "losing China" to the trade war

Throughout history, the China issue in the US presidential election is not new. From the debate of "Who Lost China" after the Korean War to the issue of "most-favored-nation treatment" during the Clinton administration in the 1990s, the China issue has entered the main stage of the US election many times. For example, Clinton severely criticized President Bush's "appeasement policy" towards China during the campaign and linked the June 4th Incident with US-China relations. But after taking office, Clinton continued to give China most-favored-nation treatment and dealt with trade and human rights issues separately.

In 2020, due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the China issue once again became one of the core issues of the campaign. The Trump administration blamed China for the epidemic and advocated a tougher policy toward China, while Biden was forced to respond and took a firmer stance on China. However, this tough attitude did not fully continue into the 2024 campaign.

Where will the US policy toward China go in the future?

Whether it is Trump's second term or the Harris administration, there will be no fundamental change in the US policy toward China. Polls by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs show that more than half of Americans support curbing the growth of China's power, but most do not want this competition to evolve into a military conflict. The strategic competition between the United States and China will continue to intensify, but it will mainly be reflected in the fields of economy, technology and diplomacy, rather than direct military confrontation.

Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher once criticized the United States for lacking a clear China strategy. He believed that the United States needed to formulate long-term goals to better cope with the challenges of China's rise. However, the current consensus between the two parties on China policy makes the debate around this issue during the election less important.

The long-term impact of US-China relations and the election

Although the discussion of China issues in the 2024 election was limited, it does not mean that its importance has diminished. In the future, no matter who is elected president, the competition and confrontation between the United States and China will become an important part of global politics. The US government's China policy may be fine-tuned according to the international situation, but the overall strategic direction-containment of China's economic and technological rise-will continue to dominate the future direction of US-China relations.

Although China has not become the focus of the election, it is undoubtedly a long-term test in the future US foreign policy. The fact that the candidates did not explore this issue in depth reflects the voters' strong concern about domestic issues and also reveals the high degree of consistency between the two parties on foreign policy. In the coming years, the direction of U.S.-China relations will continue to influence the global political landscape, and the outcome of this election will determine the United States' next moves in this strategic competition.