On October 28, 2023, the latest report released by Jiangsu Province showed that all 13 cities in the province have entered a moderately aging society, among which Nantong, Taizhou, Yancheng and Yangzhou have entered the ranks of severe aging. The news quickly became a hot search on Baidu, showing that all sectors of society are paying close attention to the aging of Jiangsu's population.

The current situation of aging in Jiangsu reveals: four cities have entered a severe aging society

The "Jiangsu Province Aging Industry Development Report (2024)" released by Jiangsu Province this time shows that by the end of 2023, the total permanent population of Jiangsu will be 85.26 million, of which the elderly population aged 60 and above will reach 20.89 million, accounting for 24.5% of the permanent population, far higher than the national average of 21.1%. In addition, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above is 18.4%, which is also higher than the national level of 15.4%. This shows that Jiangsu's aging process is far ahead of the national average.

According to internationally accepted standards, a society with a population of 65 years and above exceeding 7% is considered an aging society, a society with a population of 14% or above is considered a moderately aging society, and a society with a population of 21% or above is considered a severely aging society. According to the report, for the first time, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above in all 13 cities in Jiangsu Province exceeded 14%, which means that the province has entered the moderately aging stage. Among them, the proportion of elderly population in Nantong, Taizhou, Yancheng and Yangzhou is 25.22%, 24.38%, 22.86% and 22.47% respectively, which means that these cities have entered the severely aging stage.

There is a significant difference in aging between southern and northern Jiangsu, and Suzhou attracts migrant population to alleviate aging

The aging phenomenon in Jiangsu Province is not balanced. The report pointed out that the degree of aging in central and northern Jiangsu is significantly higher than that in the economically developed southern Jiangsu region. As the city with the lowest degree of aging in the province, Suzhou shows a different trend. Although Suzhou has a permanent population of 12.958 million, ranking first in the province, its registered population is only 7.867 million. This shows that Suzhou has alleviated the pressure brought by aging to a certain extent by attracting a large number of young people from outside.

However, the central and northern Jiangsu regions face more severe challenges of aging. Data show that at the end of 2023, the elderly dependency ratio in the province reached 27.14%, which means that every 100 working-age people need to support 27.14 elderly people, which is much higher than before. This trend shows that the whole province of Jiangsu is facing huge social security and pension pressure, especially in the central and northern Jiangsu regions where aging is more serious.

The decline in birth rate exacerbates the aging problem in Jiangsu

Not only is the proportion of the elderly population increasing, but the birth rate in Jiangsu has also shown a continuous downward trend. Data show that from 2016 to 2019, the number of births in Jiangsu has begun to gradually decrease, and since 2020, this downward trend has become more obvious. In 2020, Jiangsu's birth population fell below 600,000 for the first time, reaching only 564,000; it further dropped to 479,800 in 2021; it decreased to 445,000 in 2022, and even dropped to 409,000 in 2023, showing a negative natural population growth rate for three consecutive years.

This trend of fewer births, accompanied by an aging population, makes the challenges facing Jiangsu more complex. In the future, the contradiction between the decrease in the working-age population and the increase in the elderly population will become increasingly prominent.

Coping with the multiple pressures of aging: social security and medical services face challenges

The aging problem in Jiangsu Province has brought tremendous pressure to all levels of society. Shangguan News commented that with the increase in the dependency ratio of the elderly population, it means that each working-age population needs to support more elderly people, which not only imposes a heavy burden on the social security system, but also brings unprecedented challenges to medical security and elderly care services.

At present, the Jiangsu Provincial Government has realized the severity of the aging problem and mentioned relevant measures to deal with the aging problem in the report. However, how to effectively alleviate the pressure of population aging on the economy, society and public services in the next few years will be a long-term task facing Jiangsu Province and even the whole country.

Summary

Jiangsu Province has taken the lead in entering the accelerated period of aging in the country, especially some cities have entered the stage of severe aging. Although cities such as Suzhou have alleviated the impact of aging to a certain extent by absorbing foreign population, overall, the decline in birth rate and the rapid increase in the elderly population have brought many challenges to Jiangsu Province. Social security, medical services and pension systems are all facing huge reform pressures. How to effectively deal with these problems in the future will become an important issue for Jiangsu's economic and social development.