In the Japanese House of Representatives election held on October 27, 2024, the Liberal Democratic Party, which has been in power for many years, and its long-term partner Komeito failed to maintain a majority of seats, marking that Japanese politics may enter a new period of turbulence. Although the counting of votes is still in progress, the available data shows that the ruling coalition is facing severe challenges. The election results reveal voters' dissatisfaction with the current government and the complexity of Japan's future political landscape.

The Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lose the majority of seats in the House of Representatives

According to the latest data from the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK), after counting was completed in 90% of the constituencies, the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito alliance only won 192 of the 465 seats. Although this number has not yet been fully determined, it is enough to show that the ruling coalition has lost its majority in the House of Representatives. This means that the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito failed to retain more than half of the 233 seats, making the composition of the future Japanese government even more uncertain.

Exit poll data showed that the Liberal Democratic Party, led by Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, performed poorly in this election and even failed to meet the expectations of some analysts. The Constitutional Democratic Party, Japan's largest opposition party, became the biggest winner of this election and is expected to win 157 seats in the House of Representatives. This result reflects voters' strong dissatisfaction with the current government's handling of economic issues, especially high inflation.

Political scandals and economic pressures have become key factors in voters' voting

This election is not only a test for the Ishiba government, but also reveals the general dissatisfaction of Japanese society with the current economic situation and political corruption. The political donation scandals that broke out in the Liberal Democratic Party in the past few years have seriously damaged its image, especially the corruption of the Kishida Fumio government. Although Ishiba Shigeru won the LDP presidential election and became the new prime minister, he failed to reverse the factional struggle within the LDP in a short period of time, nor did he effectively respond to domestic economic challenges.

As global inflation intensifies and the security situation in East Asia becomes increasingly complex, voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the government's lack of effective economic policies. Reuters pointed out that voters protested against the LDP government through voting, forcing the Ishiba government to reconsider its governing policy.

Political alliance may be key to future government

The results of this election may force major political parties to form alliances and negotiations to form a new ruling coalition. Since no party won more than half of the seats in this election, small parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Democratic Party for the People and the Japan Restoration Party will become the key minority in the future political situation. Although the Japan Restoration Party and the Democratic Party for the People are expected to win 20 to 45 seats respectively, their policy propositions are far different from those of the Liberal Democratic Party, so the prospects for future alliances remain unclear.

In an interview on election night, Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, said that he was willing to engage in dialogue with other parties, promote thorough political reforms, and strive to become the next prime minister. Noda's statement means that cooperation between different parties may appear in Japanese politics in the future, and even a new ruling coalition may be formed.

New Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces huge challenges

Shigeru Ishiba has only been the prime minister of Japan for a month, replacing Fumio Kishida, but he has faced tremendous pressure during this period. The Kishida government has lost the trust of the people due to political scandals and corruption, and Shigeru Ishiba, despite winning the election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, failed to lead the Liberal Democratic Party to a clear advantage in this election.

When announcing the dissolution of the House of Representatives and holding a new round of general elections, Ishiba hoped to gain broader political support through a new election and re-consolidate the ruling position of the Liberal Democratic Party. However, the strong reaction of voters and the voting results show that Ishiba's plan has not been fulfilled. The election results may force him to consider power-sharing transactions with other parties, which will bring new tests to his leadership.

Uncertainty of Japan's political situation and international background

The results of this election not only affect Japan's domestic politics, but also have an important impact on the international situation. In particular, against the backdrop of the increasingly complex situation in East Asia, Japan needs a strong government to deal with regional security threats. As the most important ally of the United States in Asia, Japan's political turmoil will undoubtedly have an impact on US-Japan relations.

It is particularly noteworthy that only nine days after the end of the Japanese election, the United States will also hold a presidential election, and the current state of parity between the two parties in the US political arena has increased the uncertainty of the global political situation. As allies, changes in the political situation of Japan and the United States will have a certain impact on future international security cooperation.

Future Outlook: Policy Direction after the Political Reshuffle

As the counting of votes proceeds, the final election results will be announced in the early hours of Monday local time in Japan. However, the current trend shows that Japan's political arena will usher in an important reshuffle in the future. Whether the LDP and Komeito coalition reorganizes or the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party gains power through an alliance, the future Japanese government will face complex internal and external challenges.

Voters have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the current government's economic policies. The future government needs to deal with domestic economic problems more effectively while maintaining a sound policy in the fields of diplomacy and security. In addition, how to deal with political scandals and rebuild public trust will also become an important issue that the future government must face.

In general, this election not only broke the long-term dominance of the LDP in postwar Japanese politics, but also brought new variables to future Japanese politics. Whether the Ishiba Shigeru government can rebuild its ruling foundation by cooperating with other political parties remains to be seen. In any case, Japan's future political situation will be full of uncertainty and will have a far-reaching impact on the global stage.