According to the latest "2023 National Education Development Statistical Bulletin" released by the Ministry of Education of China, in 2023, the number of kindergartens in China saw the largest decline in recent years, with a total of nearly 15,000 fewer than in 2022. This data shows that China's preschool education is facing unprecedented changes and challenges.

Rapid shrinkage of the preschool education system

Data show that as of 2023, the total number of kindergartens in China is 274,400, a decrease of 14,808 from 2022, almost three times the number of decreases in 2022. This wave of large-scale closures is particularly concentrated in inclusive and private kindergartens, with about 63% of the closed kindergartens being inclusive kindergartens and 74% being private kindergartens. At the same time, the total number of children in kindergartens has also dropped significantly, down 5.3457 million from 2022, a decrease of 11.55%.

In 2022, although the total number of kindergartens fell for the first time, with a decrease of 5,610, the decrease was only 1.90%. Compared with 2023, the decline in the number of children in kindergartens in 2022 was also smaller, at 3.7%. The changes in the past two years show that China's preschool education is undergoing accelerated adjustments, with both the number of kindergartens and the number of children in kindergartens declining, reflecting the obvious shrinkage of overall preschool education demand.

From primary school to high school: changes in student sources at different stages

Not only kindergartens, the number of primary schools across the country has also shown a downward trend. In 2023, the total number of primary schools across the country decreased by 5,645 compared with the previous year, while the number of junior high schools decreased by 132. However, unlike the situation in preschool education, the number of students enrolled and the number of students in school at the primary school stage have increased slightly, showing a certain recovery trend. Caixin.com analyzed that this phenomenon may be affected by the full liberalization of the "two-child" policy in 2016, which has caused the small peak of births in recent years to gradually enter the primary school stage.

In contrast, the change in student sources at the secondary school stage is not obvious, but data shows that the number of ordinary high schools and the number of students enrolled have increased in 2023, increasing by 2.36% and 2.14% respectively. On the other hand, secondary vocational schools (SVTS) showed a decrease in the number of students, with the number of schools and enrollment decreasing by 1.6% and 6.34% respectively. This change reflects the society's demand preference for different educational paths, with more parents preferring to send their children to ordinary high schools rather than SVTS.

Tightening of private compulsory education

In addition to adjustments to kindergarten and primary and secondary education, the number of private compulsory education schools has also decreased significantly. In 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued the "Opinions on Regulating the Development of Private Compulsory Education", proposing that the proportion of students in private compulsory education at the provincial level should not exceed 5%, and the proportion at the county level should not exceed 15%. Since then, private compulsory education has been strictly reduced nationwide. By 2023, the total number of private compulsory education schools nationwide will be 10,100, a decrease of 2,051 from 2021, and the number of students will also decrease by more than 4.3 million.

These data show that the government is promoting the publicization of the compulsory education system to strengthen the unified management and allocation of compulsory education resources. The policy adjustment has reduced the market share of private compulsory education to a certain extent, and also affected the source of students and operational capacity of relevant private education institutions.

Long-term impact of declining birth rate

With the rapid decline in China's birth rate in recent years, the decline in the school-age population is gradually affecting all stages of education. Netizen "kobayashishingo" commented that "the school-age population will further decrease in the next three years", reflecting the public's concerns about the long-term impact of low birth rate. Another netizen "pyjR11" also pointed out that kindergartens that used to strictly restrict enrollment conditions are now open to the public and are still facing the situation of dissatisfaction with enrollment. This phenomenon shows that many kindergartens are difficult to maintain operations due to insufficient student sources, and even more relaxed enrollment policies have failed to reverse the situation.

In recent years, the decline in fertility has not only affected the living space of kindergartens, but also put pressure on schools in the compulsory education stage. In the future, the continued decline in the number of school-age children may lead to more school closures or downsizing, and the allocation of educational resources in various places will also face re-evaluation and adjustment.

Education industry response and future outlook

Faced with changes such as a decrease in the school-age population, a reduction in private education institutions, and fluctuations in the number of schools, China's education system needs to respond flexibly to adapt to the needs of the new situation. For kindergartens, especially inclusive kindergartens, how to improve service quality and enhance attractiveness has become the key to survival. At the same time, as the demand for preschool education decreases, more resources may be invested in optimizing existing educational infrastructure and curriculum content.

In short, the large-scale closure of kindergartens in 2023 is both a microcosm of population changes and a signal of the transformation of China's education system. With the continued fluctuation of birth rates and further adjustments to education policies in the future, China's educational resources will pay more attention to quality improvement and diversified development to adapt to the new population structure and social needs.